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ROC curve instrument

DefinitionThe path of true positive rate against false positive rate as the threshold sweeps, whose area is the AUROC. Chapter 5 section 5.4. Also ROC.
ExampleA score with true positive rate 0.75 at false positive rate 0.25 traces one point of the curve, and the sweep of thresholds traces the rest.
BookData Mining as Observation, draft 0.2, commit f3914f0; entry id roc-curve, kind instrument.
Statusno ledger row names this entry. Corrections: none recorded.
Defining equation

Book equation 5.4.

Assumptions and scope
  • The path of true positive rate against false positive rate as the threshold sweeps. Its area is the AUROC, which lies in the unit interval, is one half for a constant score, is one for a perfect ranking, and is unchanged by any strictly increasing transform of the score.
  • The bound from AUROC to the best F1 through the Youden index holds for concave curves and not for every curve, with the counterexample at AUROC 0.75, and the book corrects the source on that point.
Prior artnone recorded
Evidencelean/DataMiningAsObservation/Auroc.lean, lean/DataMiningAsObservation/YoudenF1.lean
Reviewednot yet reviewed; generated 2026-09-10 from records at the commits on the provenance page.
00.5100.51false positive ratetrue positive rateYouden index, TPR − FPRarea under the curve, AUROCchance is the diagonal
True positive rate against false positive rate as the threshold sweeps.

Equation

Book equation 5.4.

\[\begin{gathered} F_1^{\max}\ \le\ \sup_{t\in[J,\,1]}\ \frac{2t\pi}{t\pi+\pi+(t-J)(1-\pi)},\qquad J=\max_{\tau}\big(\mathrm{TPR}-\mathrm{FPR}\big),\qquad \pi=\text{prevalence}, \\ J\le 2A-1\ \text{when the ROC curve is concave, and not in general.} \end{gathered}\]

Book equation 0.38.

\[w=\max\big(0,\ 2\cdot\mathrm{AUROC}-1\big).\]

Conditions

Conditions are curated in entries.toml rather than read from a record.

Ledger

none

First stated

Chapter 5 section 5.4 of Data Mining as Observation, with the Youden ceiling and its correction to concave curves in theory-radar/paper/astar_paper.tex:94-110.

Measurements

none

Failures and corrections

none

Invariance envelope

none declared

Machine checked

lean/DataMiningAsObservation/Auroc.lean, theorems pair_nonneg, auroc_nonneg, auroc_le_one, auroc_perfect, auroc_reversed, auroc_chance, auroc_monotone_invariant, at observation-data-mining f3914f0; what the check covers is stated in the book’s appendix C.

lean/DataMiningAsObservation/YoudenF1.lean, theorems f1_eq, f1_le_of_youden, auroc_eq, youden_eq, youden_exceeds_auroc_form, at observation-data-mining f3914f0; what the check covers is stated in the book’s appendix C.

Used in

Data Mining as Observation primers L and S, chapters 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14.

Related

AUROC; Youden index; threshold; precision, recall; F1.

See also

Book equations stated beside the entry’s terms, not defining it: 0.28.

Sources-table rows that share a record with the entry without naming it: chapter 5 section 5.4, chapter 6 section 6.3.

Status

Generated 2026-09-10 by encyclopedia/generate.py; book at observation-data-mining f3914f0; the commit of every record is listed in the encyclopedia’s provenance.

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